Today ADP has released the first negative number since 2003 (the report can be found here). Although this is a private number and the Labor Department number will be release tomorrow, it does start to raise some concerns, but also some great opportunities.
Let’s take a look at the Financial Activity chart.
This chart closes follows what has been in the mainstream media about the ‘credit crunch’. This ‘credit’ crunch has been focused primarily on the ’sub-prime’ mortgage lending. However, I think that we are starting to see a ‘bigger’ picture beyond sub-prime and it isn’t pretty ( Thornburg for example). My concerns are that we are just starting to uncover the real mess and it is going to take a lot of effort to reveal exactly how bad our economy’s credit situation really is.
However, at the same time, this posses some interesting opportunities to look abroad. Again we have emerging markets that are beating out most major US and European indexes. If the US is a sinking ship, perhaps time to venture elsewhere investments? I think so. =) ~Ian
Should be interesting to see what the payroll #’s are like tomorrow.
[...] 7, 2008 by Chris Riper To follow-up on Ian’s Jobless data from ADP post the Labor Department released the February 2008 Employment Report today. The results aren’t [...]